Middle East: Population dynamics

16 Jun 2000

The Middle East is set to be a growing market for many years -- in terms of crude population figures at least. The rate of increase is slowing, but Middle Easterners continue to reproduce at a remarkable rate.

The latest edition of the World Bank's World Development Indicators says that the region's population grew by an annual average of 2.8% in 1980-98. It expects that to slow to 1.8% in 1998-2015, by which time the Middle East will be home to more than 390m people (excluding 78m in Turkey, which is not part of the Bank's definition of the region).

The table suggests that the total population of the Middle East will continue rising sharply beyond that. The Bank fore-casts it will reach 577m by 2030, with the three most populous countries -- Egypt, Iran and Turkey -- alone accounting for 278m. It also calculates that, even if fertility rates declined to replacement levels from 2000, the "population momentum" generated by these countries' young populations would mean the region's total population would reach 760m by the time growth rates had fallen to zero.

Chart 1 shows the Bank's forecast population growth rates. It expects the Palestinian Territories to be the fastest-growing territory in the region. Their growth rate of 3.5% implies a doubling of population in approximately 19 years.

This is reckoned to be about the limit for rates of natural increase. A number of Middle Eastern countries have had growth rates in this region until recently (see chart 2). They are now coming down -- quite rapidly in some cases. Saudi Arabia's "demographic gap", the difference between the crude death rate and the crude birth rate, implied a rate of natural increase of 3.4% in 1980, falling to 3.1% by 1997 and then to 3% in 1998.

The dynamics of population change mean that even the small fall in 1997-98 is enough to imply a fall in the kingdom's projected population by 2030 of 46m instead of 49m. Changes in other growth rates mean the Bank has cut its 2030 population projections for seven other Middle Eastern countries. Only in Iran (98m) and Yemen (36m) does it now expect higher population than it did a year ago.

However, in some countries such projections are complicated by migration trends. For example, in Kuwait continued high fertility rates meant the number of nationals rose by 3.6% in 1997. But the overall population increased by 5.5%, as the expatriate population rose by a net 6.5%.

Gulf governments want to cut down on the number of expatriates. One reason for this is the demand that higher populations will make on domestic resources. Demand for water and electricity already exceeds production in some countries. Installing additional capacity will prove a major strain for state resources -- or will require more willingness to allow in foreign private investment. Meeting the demand for land, housing and, not least, jobs will also prove a major challenge.

 
A tight squeeze
Projected population by 2030 (m)
 
Algeria 48
Egypt 92
Iran 98
Iraq  38
Israel 9
Jordan 8
Kuwait 3
Lebanon 6
Libya 9
Morocco 41
Oman 4
Saudi Arabia 46
Syria 27
Tunisia 13
Turkey 88
UAE 4
West Bank and Gaza 7
Yemen 36
 
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2000.
 

Source: Business Middle East 16 Jun 2000