EGYPT CLONES A NILE

Making the desert bloom--or making the wells go dry

Source: U.S. News & World Report, 05/19/97, Vol. 122 Issue 19, p33, 3p.

By Alan Cooperman

Eyes a painful pink from the blowing sand, mouth and nose wrapped with a white cloth, Mohammed pauses politely in the agony of Egypt's Western Desert and describes himself as "a slave building a modern pyramid." He earns $8 for a workday that stretches from 5 a.m. to 7 p.m., sleeps in a trailer with nine other men, and never goes to the latrine after dark without at least two companions to fend off wolves.

The leathery, 23-year-old bulldozer driver belongs to a small army of Egyptians excavating the New Valley Canal, a concrete trough across one of the hottest, driest places on Earth. At one end, an enormous pumping station will suck 3.6 billion gallons per day out of Lake Nasser, the reservoir created from the Nile by the Aswan High Dam. Hundreds of miles away, planners say, the water will spill forth in the middle of the desert, turning a string of ancient oases into a lush new valley and creating a million acres of farmland out of dust.

Not only Mohammed but many other Egyptians have come to think of this megaproject as President Hosni Mubarak's pyramid--the monument by which the Egyptian leader will be remembered. The only debate is whether it will testify to his foresight or his folly.

Improving on nature. Proponents grow lyrical with superlatives: The world's longest canal will bring water from one of the world's largest man-made lakes through the most forbidding terrain to the most ambitious land-reclamation project ever. "Since history started, Egyptians have stuck to the Nile. Now we will have a new Nile," gushes Hussein Mukhtar, head of the government information office in the nearest point of civilization, Abu Simbel, about 60 miles from Mohammed's desolate work camp.

But many resource experts say the project only shows how essential it is, and how difficult, to persuade individuals and governments to think of water in a new way--as a scarce commodity and not the freebie for farmers it has been around the world. The last thing that Egypt needs, they argue, is a $2 billion boondoggle that will give water to farmers virtually for free in an unsustainable attempt to turn the desert green. "With the Nile in front of us, Egyptians can't stop the sensation that we have a luxurious water situation. But it's a false sensation,"says Magdy Allam, a physician and environmentalist in Cairo.

Egypt already uses all the Nile water it is allocated by international treaty, mostly for irrigating crops. Yet it still imports more than half of its food, including about 10 million tons of grain annually. Since it takes 1,000 tons of water to grow a single ton of grain, that means Egypt already brings in about 10 billion tons of "virtual water" per year, according to Prof. Tony Allan, a water expert at the University of London's School of Oriental and African Studies.

Seen as a whole, the Middle East is the world's largest exporter of oil--no surprise there--but also the largest importer of virtual water, a fact that many of its people and governments do not seem to realize. "More water flows into the Middle East each year embedded in grain than flows down the Nile to Egyptian farmers," Allan says. He calculates that the Mideast "ran out of water"--became unable to feed its expanding population with its limited water supplies--around 1972 and has been supplementing its needs with imported virtual water ever since.

This has been relatively painless for Egypt and its neighbors because the United States, Canada, and the European Union have long subsidized grain exports. During the 1980s, the big grain producers sold wheat, on average, for $100 a ton when it would have cost $200 a ton to produce without direct export subsidies, Allan says.

Liquid capital. But the price of virtual water is rising--grain hit $250 a ton last year--and so are Middle Eastern water needs, mainly from rapid population growth. The result will be a water crunch, with the ever present potential for conflict. A small reminder came last week, when Jordan angrily canceled a meeting between Crown Prince Hassan and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in a dispute over sharing water supplies.

Easing the crunch through desalination is no panacea. It can provide water for drinking but is far too expensive for irrigating crops, the biggest use of water in the arid Mideast. So Western advisers have been urging Arab countries to stop chasing the holy grail of food self-sufficiency. Instead, the experts say, Mideast nations should import the grain they need, banding together and using their muscle in the market to reduce the price. Their own agriculture could then focus on crops that produce a high value per unit of water, such as vegetables, and they should gradually raise the price of water to encourage conservation and more efficient irrigation.

But it's a hard sell in many countries where food self-sufficiency remains a politically popular goal. Saudi Arabia, for example, cultivates wheat in the desert with desalinated water at an estimated seven times the world price per bushel. Jordan, which has the most dire water shortage in the region, provides water to its farmers almost for free. Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi has spent $30 billion and more than a decade on a gargantuan irrigation project, drilling thousands of deep wells through the desert into the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer, a reservoir that was created during the Ice Age, more than 30,000 years ago, and has no source of replenishment. The result is what he calls "the Great Man-Made River" but others have dubbed "the Great Madman's River" because it is drawing down a precious, finite source of so-called fossil water. Fearing that Qadhafi will deplete the ground water under both countries, Egypt plans to sink new wells of its own to supplement the New Valley Canal. "No one knows exactly how much water is under there, but it's like two people drinking with straws out of the same glass. It could disappear pretty fast," says Nurit Kliot, a hydrogeologist at Israel's Haifa University.

So far, Israel is the only Middle Eastern country that has followed the prescription of Western economists. In the 1960s, then Prime Minister Levi Eshkol and his cabinet began reducing the amount of water available for agriculture. "It was a risky decision, believe me, to abandon food security. But they took it," says Saul Arlosoroff, an Israeli water expert and former World Bank executive. Israel gradually has raised the cost of water for farmers to an average of 80 cents per 1,000 gallons, one of the highest rates in the world for irrigation water. Israel no longer raises much of its wheat or meat, concentrating on vegetables, fruits, and flowers. It is a leader in ultraefficient drip irrigation, and 55 percent of its sewage water is treated and reused, mainly on inedible crops such as cotton and flax.

But Egypt has many problems Israel does not, and Mubarak is pushing the New Valley Canal not least as a way to deal with his country's overcrowding andunemployment. Seen from above, Egypt is a vast arid plain with a thin green stripe--the Nile--running down the middle. Ninety-five percent of Egypt's 60 million people are jammed onto that stripe, just 5 percent of the land. Within two decades the population is expected to reach a staggering 85 million, and it is hard to imagine where those additional 25 million people will live or work, as the official unemployment rate hovers around 11 percent and estimates of the actual rate top 20 percent. The government hopes to lure 7 million people over the next 20 years to the New Valley with tax breaks, cheap land, and plenty of water.

Egyptian planners say they can supply water to fill the canal by conserving 10 percent of the country's current water usage. Repairing leaking pipes and lining ditches, using new irrigation technology, and reducing the acreage of water-intensive crops such as rice, cotton, and sugar cane would produce the needed savings.

But that extra supply of water and the jobs it is supposed to create exist only on paper, even as the canal is under construction. Because water will continue to be provided at little or no charge, farmers may find little or no incentive to conserve. Hopes for new jobs may also be overblown. Mubarak's government says that private investors will build export-oriented farms in the New Valley. But to be competitive, private exporters need to use automated irrigation systems and hold down labor costs. "This project is going to employ thousands of people, not millions," predicts Rushdi Said, an Egyptian hydrogeologist with experience in desert farming. He and other critics believe it would be wiser to halt urban encroachment on the Nile valley and delta and to build new industrial cities around recently discovered coastal gas deposits.

Still, there is little doubt among Egyptians that Mubarak, Egypt's president since 1981, is determined to go ahead with the project. "Egyptians are always looking for their presidents and kings to do something with water," says Allam, the Cairo environmentalist. Muhammad Ali, Egypt's great 19th-century pasha, built the first big dam on the Nile as well as a canal from Cairo to Alexandria. Gamal Abdel Nasser built the Aswan High Dam with Soviet help, and Anwar Sadat began the Peace Canal to bring water to the Sinai.

Still unanswered is where Egypt will find $2 billion to build the canal and pumping station, plus an additional $15 billion for roads, schools, and other infrastructure in the New Valley. According to some reports, the oil-rich Sheik Zayed of Abu Dhabi, a major donor to Egypt, may fund the canal and have it named in his honor. But "this has not been determined," says Mahmoud Abu Zeid, president of the Egyptian National Water Research Center. "If you contribute to the construction and reclaim 200,000 acres, we'll name it after you."

A canal runs through it

Facing rapid population growth and a finite water supply, Egypt has begun construction of a $2 billion-plus canal that will extend the Nile through its Western Desert.

Phase 1. Within 2 1/2 years, 41.6 miles of the New Valley Canal will be completed, stretching from an area just north of Abu Simbel to the Toshka depression.

Phase 2. By 2017 the canal will reach the Baris oasis, for a total distance of 192 miles.

People

Egypt's population will grown from 60 million to 85 million in 20 years.

Land

The canal could provide up to a million acres of new farmland.

Virtual water

By expanding grain imports, Middle Eastern countries could save the water they would otherwise use to grow such water intensive crops. Grain imports thus represent "virtual water"--about 1,000 tons or about 250,000 gallons of waterper ton of grain.

Minimum annual requirements of water per person

Growing food: 250,000 gallons
Washing: 25,000 gallons
Drinking: 250 gallons

Supply and demand

The average person needs about 300,000 gallons of water per year. Countries with a per capita supply of less than about 150,000 gallons a year face severe economic growth limits.

Annual renewable water available, per capita Each cube represents 250 gallons of water.

Kuwait: 16,000 gallons
Libya: 56,000 gallons
Jordan: 60,000 gallons
West Bank, Gaza: 64,000 gallons
Saudi Arabia: 77,000 gallons
Israel: 95,000 gallons
Egypt:  343,000 gallons
Iraq:  750,000 gallons
North America: 5,150,000 gallons

Note: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait supplement their supplies with extensive desalination.

Sources: Rivers of Eden: The Struggle for Water and the Quest for Peace in the middle East by Daniel Hillel; Egyptian Ministry of Public Works; International Grains Council; CIA Handbook of International Economic Statistics, 1995; University of London, School of Oriental and African Studies