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Water: A source of conflict of coopeariton in the Middle East?
A SCRAMBLE FOR WATER RESOURCES IS UNDER WAY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Satisfactory means of allocating water between neighboring countries have
to be devised if the scramble for water is not to become another item for
further poisoning the relations among the riparian states of the
Middle-Eastern water resources.
THE ISSUE IS COMPLETELY SEPARATE FROM THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS
Water has already emerged as an important theme in the search for a
Middle East peace settlement between the Arabs and Israelis. Both sides want
to ensure that a sufficient supply of water in the years ahead. Because
Turkey is often regarded as a water-rich country, the Euphrates is sometimes
seen as a panacea for the water problems of the countries to Turkey's south.
Both ideas rest on misconceptions. Turkey's water resources are much more
limited than generally supposed and the search for a satisfactory settlement
in the Euphrates-Tigris basin is a complete separate issue from the quest for
peace in the Middle East. THE EUPHRATES-TIGRIS BASIN
MODERN TECHNOLOGY IS REVIVING THE 'FERTILE CRECENT'
Thousands of years ago, water from these two great rivers helped
create the 'fertile crescent' where the first civilizations of the Middle
East arose. Today, the Tigris and Euphrates flow through three countries -
Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. Harnessed by modern technology, the rivers have the
potential to make agriculture flourish on a scale undreamed of in ancient
times. The result is that water, long taken for granted, is becoming a scarce
commodity. The anticipated combined demand for water from the three countries
is actually greater than the total water volume of the two rivers. Though the
Euphrates-Tigris basin contains more water, both on the surface and underground,
than the other river basins of the Middle East, the water resources of each
country vary considerably. Iraq has more water than Turkey, but Syria has
less. So these three countries face a challenge. They need to devise an
arrangement for using the water of the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin which is
equitable and will stand the test of time. That means overcoming
disagreements, grudges, and prejudices and learning to work together. THE FACTS
HOW MUCH WATER DO THESE COUNTRIES ACTUALLY HAVE?
A common misconception that needs to be dispelled at the outset of any
discussion is the idea that Turkey has water and the Arab countries don't. In
fact Turkey's water resources are far from abundant. Turkey has only about a
fifth of the water available in water-rich regions such as North America and
western Europe. Water rich countries are ones which have 10,000 cubic meters
of water per capita yearly. This is well above the 1,830 cubic meters per
capita in Turkey. Total annual rainfall yields 501 billion cubic meters of water in
Turkey each year, but just under two thirds of this is lost through
evaporation. That leaves a total of 186 billion cubic meters of surface
run-off, of which only 98 billion cubic meters can be put to economic use.
This is supplemented by a further 12 billion cubic meters of underground
water. Table 1
Annual Water Quantities Per Capita in Some Water-Rich and Middle Eastern Countries (m3 / capita / year)
So why is Turkey often thought of as having a water surplus? The
reason is simple. Infrastructural constraints mean that only 40 billion cubic
meters of water can actually be used at present. The remaining 70 billion
cubic meters are currently unused, but they represent a resource which
Turkey's economy needs and plans to draw upon with increasing efficiency in
the future. THE TIGRIS AND THE EUPHRATES
THE TIGRIS AND EUPHRATES FORM A COMPLEX WATER SYSTEM
The Tigris and Euphrates are two of the longest and most famous rivers
in the world. Both rise in the high mountains of northeastern Anatolia and
flow down through Turkey, Syria, and Iraq and eventually join to form the
Shatt Al-Arab 200 km before they flow into the Gulf. Between them they
account for about 28.5 per cent of Turkey's total surface water flow. However
the geography of the two rivers is very different. What is more, the contribution from each riparian country also varies
sharply. Turkey contributes 31 billion cubic meters or about 89 per cent of
the annual flow of 35 billion cubic meters of the Euphrates. The remaining
eleven per cent comes from Syria. Iraq makes no contribution to the run-off. When it comes to the Tigris, the picture is entirely different. 52 per
cent of the total average run-off of 49 billion cubic meters comes from
Turkey. Iraq contributes all the rest. No Syrian waters drain into the
Tigris. HOW MUCH WATER DO THEY WANT?
EXISTING DEMANDS FOR THE RIVER WATER ARE UNREALISTIC
As to claims upon the water from the rivers, the picture changes once
again. Syria wants 32 per cent of the Euphrates but only 5.4 per cent of the
Tigris. Iraq is asking for 65 per cent of the water potential of the
Euphrates and 92.5 per cent of the Tigris. Turkey plans to use about 52 per
cent of Euphrates - to which it contributes 89 per cent - and 14.1 per cent
of the Tigris, to which it contributes 52 per cent.
Figure 1-Contribution of Turkey,
Syria and Iraq to the Euphrates and Their Demands (in
Billion cubic meters per year)
Figure 2-Contribution of Turkey,
Syria and Iraq to the Tigris and Their Demands (in Billion cubic meters per year) The combined demands of the riparian countries thus amount to 148 per
cent of the total flow capacity of the Euphrates and 111 per cent of that of
the Tigris. These expectations are obviously unrealistic. The demands of Iraq
and Syria tacitly assume that Turkey releases all the flow of the river
without utilizing any of it. This is despite the fact that Turkey has more reason to depend on the
waters of the Tigris and the Euphrates for both energy production and
irrigation than either Syria or Iraq. Both of Turkey's southern neighbors are
petroleum producers. Turkey produces little petrol of its own and instead
relies on water for power production. Turkey's farming industry and its
population are vastly larger than that of either Syria or Iraq and as a
result it needs more water for irrigation. Syria claims that up to 770,000 hectares of its land could be
irrigated with water from the Euphrates. Iraq has a larger irrigable area,
but, as is the case with Syria, most of it is low-lying and afflicted by
deposits of gypsum and salt. Physical geography means that both Syria and
Iraq has relatively little scope for storing river water behind high dams.
What Iraq can do however is to tap the waters of the Tigris by using canals
and so employing water which would otherwise go unused. The Tharthar canal,
for example, already links the Euphrates and the Tigris. Turkey makes almost
no use of the waters of the Tigris for the time being. The key to eventual agreement on water issues between Turkey, Iraq,
and Syria could well be to bring the Tigris firmly into the overall picture
by transferring of Tigris's flow into the Euphrates. Combining the waters of
the Euphrates and the Tigris would make it possible for all three countries
to go ahead with their irrigation plans along the Euphrates river. Turkey's claim on water for irrigation is a strong one. It has
approximately seven times more irrigable land in the Euphrates and Tigris
basin than Syria does - about 2,5 million hectares of lands. Turkey is
planning to irrigate 1.7 million ha from the Euphrates and the Tigris under
the GAP (Southeastern Anatolia Project). This is just above two thirds of the
high quality land which will benefit from irrigation with water from the
Euphrates and Tigris. What Syria and Iraq are proposing would amount, in
effect, to diverting water away from fertile fields to areas of high salt and
gypsum concentrations. THE SOUTHEASTERN ANATOLIA PROJECT
THE WATERS OF THE EUPHRATES AND TIGRIS ARE WORKING AN ECONOMIC MIRACLE
For many decades, southeastern Anatolia was the least economically
developed region in Turkey, lagging far behind the rest of the country.
Thanks to the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) this situation is now
starting to change. Now new crops can be introduced in this, Originally designed and planned in the 1960s, GAP intends to harness
the potential of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers and their tributaries by
building 22 high dams and 19 hydro-power plants. These will generate 27
billion kWh of electricity a year and irrigate 1.7 million hectares of farm
land. The plains around Urfa and Harran are being irrigated with water from
the Euphrates piped through twin tunnels, 26 km long each, opened in 1994.
The impact on the economy of the region is dramatic. Many Turkish crops will
double or even triple. GAP will provide food self-sufficiency in Turkey and
will create 3.3 million jobs. By the year 2000, southeast Anatolia should
begin to enjoy an era of unprecedented wealth and prosperity. The contrast
between it and Turkey's regions will decline. AN INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK IS EMERGING
TURKEY, SYRIA AND IRAQ HAVE ALREADY EVOLVED SOME MECHANISMS FOR
DIALOGUE
Because the issues involved in the hydro-power schemes along the
Tigris and Euphrates are so complex and far-reaching, the three countries
involved have already had to find ways of structuring the dialogue between
them. The most important institutional forum for the three countries is the
Joint Technical Committee (JTC), a body originally set up in 1980 for
discussing the water issues between Turkey and Iraq. Syria joined in 1983.
Since 1983, Turkey, Syria, and Iraq have held sixteen ministerial and
official meetings of the JTC. Water issues were included in a section of a Protocol signed by Turkey
and Syria on July 17th 1987. This commits Turkey to releasing a monthly
average of 500 cubic meters of water a second to Syria. Turkey has
consistently abided by it ever since. The Protocol runs as follows:- "During the filling period of the Atatürk Dam Reservoir and until
the final allocation of the waters of the Euphrates among the riparian
countries, the Turkish Side undertakes to release a yearly
average of more than 500 cubic meters a second at the Turkish/Syrian border
and in cases where the monthly flow falls below the level of 500 cubic
meters, the Turkish side agrees to make up the difference during the
following month." SYRIAN AND IRAQI OPPOSITION
SYRIA AND IRAQ PUT FORWARD UNACCEPTABLE CLAIMS
Both Syria and Iraq are strongly opposed to all Turkey's development
projects on the Euphrates and the Tigris. They maintain that they enjoy
rights over the rivers going back to ancient times and that as the Tigris and
the Euphrates are both international water courses, they should be classified
as shared resources. The essence of their approach is that each country is entitled to
calculate its own water requirements unilaterally and that these figures are
then used as the basis for allocating the river flow. Specific allegations on the waters issue made against Turkey by the
Syrians and Iraqis include:
THESE CLAIMS DON'T STAND UP TO
INVESTIGATION
These allegations are fairly easily disproved.
For example, where exchanging information is concerned, full data on its
water projects has always been passed by Turkey to both Syria and Iraq at
meetings of the Joint Technical Committee of the three countries where
'exchange of information' always headed the agenda. A TAMED EUPRATES WITH A REGULAR FLOW BENEFITS TURKEY'S NEIGHBORS TOO
Claims that the flow of the Euphrates to Iraq and Syria has declined are
also untrue. The dams have made an important difference, but it is not one
which works to the disadvantage of Turkey's southern neighbors. The Euphrates
has been tamed and its flow regularized. Until the dams were built, there
were sharp fluctuations between different seasons. In winter and spring,
there used to be floods, followed in summer by a drought in which the flow of
water dwindled to a trickle. Since the dams were completed, Syria and Iraq enjoy guaranteed stable
flows of river water. Even in the driest summers, the flow continues. For
example, 1988 and 1989 were the driest years of the last half century. At the
height of the summer, the flow of the Euphrates was a mere 50 cubic meters a
second, but precisely because of the existence of the Keban and Karakaya
Reservoirs, Turkey was able to go on releasing water to Syria and Iraq at
satisfactory levels. TURKEY FULFILS HER PLEDGE
TURKEY IS ACTUALLY RELEASING MORE THAN DOUBLE THE WATER IT PROMISES
Turkey has abided fully by the commitment it made in 1987 to release a
yearly average of 500 cubic meters a second, summer and winter. In practice
the flow often considerably exceeds this. In 1995, for example, the annual
average flow was around 830 cubic meters a second. In the first half of 1996,
Turkey has been releasing water to Syria at between 1147 cubic meters and
1684 cubic meters a second, far above the amount specified in the 1987
Protocol. TURKEY PUTS ITS WORD TO THE TEST
Turkey's pledge to supply at least 500 cubic meters a second on a
monthly basis of water from the Euphrates to Syria and Iraq was put to the
test early in 1990 when the Atatürk Dam was being filled. This meant that the
flow of the Euphrates had to be temporarily interrupted for technical
reasons. A month before the filling process got under way, Turkey notified
Syria that the river flow would be stopped for a one-month period. During the
month before the operation got under way, the flow from the Keban and
Karakaya Reservoirs was stepped up to 768 cubic meters a second. During the
month-long water storage process, an extra 60 cubic meters a second were
released from catchments downstream from the Atatürk Dam. As a result, during the 81 days between 23 November 1989 and 13
February 1990, the waters of the Euphrates were released to Syria at an
average rate of 509.12 cubic meters a second. Even at the most difficult
stage of the filling of the Atatürk Dam, Turkey had more than kept its word. REGULATION DAMS
Syria and Iraq's objections do not stop with the Atatürk Dam. They
have also complained about two dams being built lower down the Euphrates at
Birecik and Karkamış. Both of these projects are 'regulation' dams, i.e. ones
whose function is to regulate the flow of waters so as to protect the ecology
of areas of the watercourse downstream from the Atatürk Dam at times when the
flow of water from it is at its peak. Both countries have built their own regulation dams and they are
familiar with how they work. Syria's regulation dam is the Al-Baath dam, just
below the Tabqa Dam, while Iraq has the Badush dam below the Saddam dam on
the Tigris and the Baghdadi dam downstream to Qadissiya dam on the Euphrates.
They should therefore be aware that these new dams will actually enable
Turkey to release more regulated water at the Syrian Border than would
otherwise have been impossible. WATER POLLUTION
Turkey has always been scrupulously careful to avoid pollution in the
use it makes of the Euphrates. Syria claims that polluted water has been
released from the Euphrates. These claims are surprising and unfounded, not
least because as yet only a relatively small area is being irrigated but also
the water at present going downstream is unused water. In the later stages of the GAP, when much more land is under
irrigation, this will change as water from the fields returns to the river.
Turkey is well aware of the risks involved and will be even more vigilant
than it already is in curbing pollution. Various methods exist of doing this.
One is to dilute water used to irrigate the plains of Şanlıurfa with 30 per
cent of fresh water afterwards. This has the advantage of saving water and
using natural resources optimally. In point of fact, both Syria and Iraq have a poor
environmental record where water is concerned. Both countries use the Euphrates
to drain off industrial pollution and sewage, thereby creating an alarming
level of pollution in the lower courses of the river and the Gulf. THE RIVER ORONTES
SYRIA'S CLAIMS OVER THE EUPHRATES HAVE TO BE JUDGED AGAINST ITS RECORD
ON THE ORONTES
Though relatively insignificant in size compared to the Tigris or the
Euphrates, a third river figures in relations between Turkey and Syria. It is
the River Orontes, known in Turkish as the Asi Nehri and in Arabic as the
al-Asi. Where the Orontes is concerned, Syria is the 'upstream' country and
Turkey the 'downstream' one. Syria's record in sharing the waters of the
Orontes contrasts dramatically with what it claims should be happening to the
waters of the Euphrates. SYRIA IS TAKING 90 PER CENT OF THE ORONTES
The Orontes rises in the mountains of Lebanon and flows through that
country for 40 km before crossing into Syria. After traveling 325 km through
Syria, it arrives in Turkey and runs for a further 88 km through the province
of Hatay, going through the ancient city of Antakya, and then into the
Mediterranean sea. The annual run-off of the Orontes is about 1.2 billion
cubic meters at the frontier between Turkey and Syria. However Syria has built dams and reservoirs on its section of the
Orontes which extract about 90 per cent of the total flow of the river and
use them for irrigation and municipal use. Turkey is left with only a meager
120 million cubic meters a year. What is more, Syria plans to build two further reservoirs on the
Orontes at Ziezoun and Kastoun. If they go ahead, they will cut the amount of
river water released into Turkey to a mere 25 million cubic meters a year,
the volume of a stream rather than a river. EVERYONE SHOULD GET A FAIR DEAL
NOBODY HAS A FIXED CLAIM TO THE WATER OF THE RIVERS
Turkey believes that the countries along the Euphrates should agree on
equitable and reasonable ways of using its resources. Syria and Iraq, by
contrast, claim that they have 'acquired rights' over the river, derived from
prior usage and historical rights. In other words, they have fixed claims on
most of the water in the river and only a very small residue above this
amount is to be shared out. Not surprisingly, the 'acquired rights' doctrine has not been shared
very widely elsewhere. Professor Stephen C. McCaffrey, the rapporteur
of the International Law Commission (ILC) between 1985-1992, remarks: "A downstream state that was first to develop its water resources
could not foreclose later development by an upstream state by demonstrating
that the later development would cause it harm: under the doctrine of
equitable utilization, the fact that downstream state was 'first to develop'
(and thus has made prior uses that would be adversely affected by new
upstream uses) would be merely one of a number of factors to be taken into
consideration in arriving at an equitable allocation of the uses and benefits
of the watercourse." Prior usage of water by downstream countries on a river is just one of
many factors which have to be taken into account when trying to reach an
agreement on how the waters of a transboundary river can be utilized
equitably. INTERNATIONAL LAW AND TRANSBOUNDARY
RIVERS
ONLY LIMITED GUIDELINES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED SO FAR
Unlike seas, there is as yet relatively little international law
governing transboundary rivers and defining the rights and obligations of
riparian states. When problems arise, they are almost always settled through
bilateral or multilateral agreements which are concluded locally. The
International Law Commission of the United Nations is studying the subject
and trying to develop guidelines to help settle water-related conflicts. THE FRAMEWORK CONVENTION
Over a quarter of a century ago, in 1970, the United Nations General
Assembly asked the ILC to try to codify and develop international law on the
'Non-Navigational Use of International Watercourses.' In the summer of 1994, the ILC submitted a set of Draft Articles on
the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses to the UN
General Assembly. The finalized text of this draft is being regarded as a
Framework Convention and member countries began presenting legal views on the
Articles which will be negotiated in the UN. When this process is over, the
Framework Convention will be voted upon and adopted. However even when the
Framework Convention does come into force, it will not have a direct bearing
on possible disputes between countries using a common transboundary watercourse.
The Framework Convention will simply be regarded as embodying the latest
legal norms and guidelines on the issues involved. Some of the Framework Convention's principles have already been widely
adopted.
TURKEY'S APPROACH
A THREE STAGED PLAN
The problems of the Euphrates and Tigris basin are not going to go
away. Turkey, Syria, and Iraq will always be neighbors and the two great
rivers will always flow through them. Convincing formulas, which satisfy not
only just all three parties today, but also future generations, will have to
be found. Turkey is eager to find ways of reaching a basis for cooperation
which will strengthen regional peace and the well-being of the peoples of all
three countries. The key step is to identify the real needs that each
riparian country has for water and then find ways of meeting them from the
resources available. As a step towards an agreement, Turkey designed a three staged plan
for the equitable use of the transboundary watercourses of the
Euphrates-Tigris basin. The plan was submitted to the Joint Technical
Committee of Turkey, Syria, and Iraq in 1984. So far the Syrians and Iraqis
have not responded. TWO RIVERS - ONE RIVER SYSTEM
Turkey's plan rests on two basic principles. 1. The Euphrates and the Tigris make up a single transboundary river
system. 2. The three countries need to work together on preparing and
assessing a common inventory of water and land resources in the basin. The
reason for this is that the methods of collecting and interpreting data vary
considerably and a unified method will have to be applied when working on a
transboundary watercourse. The transboundary character of the Orontes, the Euphrates, and the
Tigris has been recognized by the riparian states for three quarters of a
century. Recognition is contained in a series of bilateral and multilateral
agreements: the 1921 Ankara Agreement; the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne; the 1939
Ankara Agreement; and the 1946 Ankara Agreement. Since 1980, the Agreed
Minutes of the Joint Committee for Economic and Technical Cooperation have
accepted that the Tigris and Euphrates are 'regional waters.' The Euphrates and the Tigris are also a single transboundary river
system for several reasons.
HOW THE WORK SHOULD PROCEED
Turkey proposes that the work of the plan proceeds in three stages. Stage One - Compiling an Inventory of Water Resources. An inventory would be made covering the whole range of available data
on the rivers and their water, including evaporation, temperature, and
rainfall levels. All measurements would be carefully checked. Stage Two - Compiling an Inventory of Land Resources Information would then be pooled on land classification and drainage.
Appropriate crops and drainage conditions would be identified and
corresponding irrigation and flowing water requirements would be established
on the basis of them. Stage Three - Analysis of Water and Land Resources At this point, potential methods of irrigation would be established in
the light of an analysis of water and land resources. Care would be taken to
ensure that the systems of irrigation selected minimized water losses. Ways
to modernize or upgrade existing irrigation projects would also be
considered. All three countries could thus be sure that an equitable and optimal
arrangement had been devised for the use of the river waters, based on firm
measures and their clearly identified needs. ALL THREE COUNTRIES WOULD BENEFIT
A FAIR DEAL IS POSSIBLE FOR EVERYBODY
The Turkish Three Staged Plan has several advantages over a 'free for
all' approach based on rivalries and claims by individual countries.
If the plan produced a breakthrough in relations between Turkey and
its southern neighbors on issues concerning the Tigris and the Euphrates, the
benefits would be far-reaching. All three countries would find it much easier
to cooperate on other issues. A significant regional tension might disappear
from the political map of the Middle East. |
