Water, Institutions and
Development in Syria: a Downstream Perspective from the Euphrates and Tigris
Marwa
Daoudy This submission was presented at the WCD
Regional Consultation, Cairo, Egypt, 8 - 9 December 1999 Introduction:
Syria’s Hydrological Profile As succinctly
expressed by Saint-Exupéry, « Rather than being necessary to life, water is
life itself ». This circumstance becomes of vital importance in an arid
and semi-arid region such as the Middle East. In order to understand the
economic and political issues at stake with respect to water conflicts in the
Middle East it is however necessary to fully comprehend their geographic and
hydrological dimensions. In a 1995 Survey, the Economic and Social Commission
for Western Asia noted that: «limited water resources, increasing water
demand imposed by a rapidly growing population and development activities,
and degradation of water quality all contribute to the problem of water
scarcity in the ESCWA region. This is further complicated by the fact that
substantial volumes of both surface water and groundwater are withdrawn from
rivers and aquifers that are shared among countries within and outside the
region. Moreover, land uses such as irrigation and range practices are
leading towards desertification as a result of soil salinisation and
overgrazing» (ESCWA, 1995). In addition, it is important to note that
strategic, geopolitical and economic considerations become intertwined with
hydrological factors.. This study will
address the current water situation in Syria in terms of her national water
policies, demands, and institutions. This is a necessary step that will
eventually enable us to analyse the economic development needs and thus the
political implications of water for Syria. The analysis will be based on,
primary and undisclosed data collected from the Syrian Ministry of
Irrigation, interviews with official and unofficial sources, studies carried
out by governmental specialists (Ministry of Irrigation, Regional Office of
the Arab Organisation for Agricultural Development, Office of Shared Resources),
research centres based in Syria (the Arab Centre for the Study of Arid Zones
& Dry Lands – ACSAD) and government organs (the Baath Arab Party).
Water-related data is often adjusted to the audience (external, internal) as
it is linked to national security issues. The data presented and analysed in
this study has been obtained from official sources and cross-checked with
unofficial internal expertise. At the heart of
the hydrological dimensions lies the complex issue of water stress which is
influenced by arid climate conditions and removal or diversions from the
basin. We will analyse the demand- and supply -induced
stress on water caused by population growth, increased per-capita activity
and higher depletion than renewal of the resource. The water crisis on the
Syrian side is a function of structural conditions and socio-economic
policies (water-intensive agriculture). We can identify some major background
factors, their interdependencies and their impact on the water
development : climate impact (limited precipitations); quantity/quality
(limited availability and increased demand ; impact of population’s
growth ); level of country’s dependency on the River (main source, other
resources available). In short our
objective is to highlight context-related issue-linkages by putting Syria’s
water development in the perspective of Turkey’s upstream position and the
GAP project in particular. 1) The Euphrates
and Tigris Rivers The Euphrates and
Tigris Rivers both originate in the mountains of eastern Turkey. These rivers
flow into Syria and Iraq and join the sea at the head of the Persian Gulf.
The Euphrates enters Syria at Karkamis which is located downstream from the
Turkish town of Birecik. It is joined by its major tributaries, the Balikh
and Khabur, and flows Southeast before entering Iraq. The Tigris flows
through Turkey until it reaches the border city of Cizre and eventually forms
the border between Turkey and Syria for 39 km before crossing into Iraq.
Within Iraq, several tributaries are gathered from the Zagros Mountains to
the east (the Greater Zap, the Lesser Zap, the Adhaim, and the Diyala). The
Tigris and Euphrates unite near Qurna, in Iraq, to form the Shatt-Al-Arab,
which empties into the Gulf. The Euphrates is
the longest river (2,700 km) in Southwest Asia west of the Indus. Both rivers
have seen the rise of ancient civilisations and the early development of
irrigation practices during those periods (Sumer, Mesopotamia). The Euphrates
Basin lies 28% in Turkey, 17% in Syria, 40% in Iraq and 15% in Saudi Arabia.
It is estimated that Turkey contributes 88% of the annual flow while Syria
contributes 12% (Beaumont, 1978). These figures are however disputed, some
authors suggest that Turkey contributes 98% of the flow (Kolars, 1991). The
Tigris is the second longest river in Southwest Asia (1,840 km)and its basin
lies between Turkey (12%), Syria (0.2%), Iraq (52%) and Iran (48%). It is
estimated that Turkey contributes 51%, Iraq 39% and Iran 10% of the annual
flow. Indeed flow estimates appear to vary according to the source which is
consulted. In addition, it needs to be recalled that some experts mention the
natural runoff and others observed flows, or seasonal records instead of mean
average flows. The rivers’ natural runoff in Syria is respectively estimated
at 31,4 bcm (995 m3/s.) and 18,7 bcm (586 m3/s.) (Ministry of Irrigation,
Planification Department, 1999). The following section will however focus on
Syria’s water volume, on the basis of observed flows. 2) Syria’s
Water Tables: The Euphrates/Khabur-Tigris Basins All official
reports of the Ministry of Irrigation divide the country into seven catchment
basins along the geographical location of the water resources in the
following manner: the Barada & Awaj, the Yarmuk, the Badia, the coastal,
the Orontes (Asi), the Euphrates, the Khabur & Tigris basins. Syria’s
Current Tables Table 1 :
Water resources in Syria (1995-2000)
(*Mentioned as
inclusive of Iraq’s share of the Euphrates) Source :
Syrian Ministry of Irrigation, 1999 (millions/billions of m3; hectares) The total
irrigated surface encompasses lands irrigated from dams, rivers and springs.
The amount is distributed as follows: 560,000 hectares from surface waters
and 700,00 from underground resources. Section 5 will further discuss water volumes
and per capita shares in Syria. 2.1 The Euphrates
Basin in Syria The Euphrates
Basin in Syria represents a surface of 51238 kms2 with a total of 18,669 mcm
of surface waters and underground resources of about 1322 mcm. The Euphrates
River (Furat in Arabic) is considered the main source of water in the
Euphrates catchment basin. Official reports mention a decrease in the annual
discharge at the Turkish-Syrian border from 1063 m3/second in 1982, to 698
m3/s. in 1984 with subsequent increases of 725 m3/s. in 1987 and 795 m3/s. in
1989 (Bakour, 1991). Depending on precipitations and extraction, the flow is
now estimated to be at about 500-1000 m3/s. According to official Syrian
sources, this is due to the still incomplete phases of the GAP (Interview
with State Minister of Foreign Affairs, 1999). Other important rivers are
tributaries of the Euphrates, such as its left bank Sajur River, and the
Balikh and Khabur Rivers on its right bank. Though not directly linked to the
Euphrates system in Syria, the Qweiq River becomes de facto an issue at
stake. It originates in Turkey and 110 km. out of its 126 km flow in Syria.
Continuous upstream extraction started to dry up the River in the 1940s
(Kolars, 1991) and made it completely dry in the 1970s (Interview with M.
Daoud, Official of the Ministry of Irrigation, 1999). The River’s waters were
of vital importance to the drinking consumption of Aleppo; as a result,
reserves from the Euphrates have since then been used to cover the needs of
the city. The following
tables summarise data relevant to the Euphrates Basin. Table 2 :
Water resources in Euphrates Basin in Syria
*Mentioned
as inclusive of Iraqi share Source :
Syrian Ministry of Irrigation, 1999 (millions of m3) Table
3 : Water Uses in Euphrates Basin (Syria)
Surface
and groundwater uses. Source :
Syrian Ministry of Irrigation, 1999 (millions of m3) 2.2. The
Khabur-Tigris Basin The Tigris Basin
in Syria is considered as a subsidiary of the Euphrates. The Khabur-Tigris
Basin is situated in the Northeast part of Syria, with a total area of 21129
km2. Both the Sajur and Qweiq Rivers -which are tributaries to the Euphrates-
flow into the Tigris River. The Tigris River (Dijleh in Arabic) lines the
Turkish-Syrian border over 39 km of its length (1718 km) and 5 km with Iraq.
Its natural runoff is estimated in Syria at 1600 mcm (50,7 m3/s). The Sajur
River originates in Turkey with a total length of 108 km, of which 48 km flow
into Syria. The total natural runoff is estimated at about 120 mcm. Following
a mixture of dry periods and the launch of upstream water projects, the
discharge of the Sajur has decreased over the years from 3.9 m3/sec. (1975)
to 3.1 m3/sec. (1985) (Bakour, 1991), and reaches today an average annual
flow of 20 mcm. According to Syrian sources, Turkey is constructing an
upstream dam on the Sajur with a reservoir capacity of 100 mcm (Syrian
Ministry of Irrigation, 1999). The Khabur River flows across the southern
fringe of the Basin. It is fed by the Ras El Ayn spring which lies across the
border between Syria and Turkey. The Basin’s population is estimated at about
1,020 million person (1995). Another tributary, the Balikh River, is dried up
since the end of the 1980s by Turkey’s overuse of the underground springs on
her side of the border. The Khabur River has also been drastically depleted
by combined pumping across the common border by both Turkish and Syrian
peasants. As a result, the Khabur had only of 30 mcm of water in 1998; this
is particularly relevant when one realises that the Great Khabur Dam in Syria
has a reservoir capacity of 605 mcm for the irrigation of an additional 50,000
hectares in the Khabur Basin (Syrian Ministry of Irrigation, 1999). Table
4 : Water Resources in Khabur-Tigris Basin in Syria
Source :
Syrian Ministry of Irrigation, 1999 (millions and billions of m3) Table
5 : Water Uses in Khabur-Tigris Basin (Syria)
Surface
and groundwater uses. Source :
Syrian Ministry of Irrigation, 1999 (millions of m3) 3) Institution and Legislation, a
Framework for Water Development Contrary to
conventional wisdom, water management in Syria is monitored in a structured
and highly bureaucratic fashion. For example, it is unfortunate that due to
the absence of reliable data, Syria is sometimes considered to have no
defined water policy, no national plan and no central co-ordination (Gleick,
1993). The institutional arrangements, such as water laws, regulations and
procedures have been modified during various periods. Water has long been
considered to be a public commodity with no charges associated with its use.
In fact, this has been the case ever since the first water law under the
French mandate (Law no. 144 of 1925). A series of laws, from 1925 to 1982,
have been issued to govern separate aspects of the water sector. For
instance, Decision no. 320 (1926) defines the procedures for the utilisation
of public sources ; Water Law no.163 (1958) defines the use of water for
agricultural purposes while restricting the extraction of groundwater by
license arrangements; and Law no. 3 (1972) regulates the establishment of
dams for the storage of flood and surface waters. 3.1.
Water-related Institutional Frameworks Syria is furthermore
one of the few countries in the region (with Jordan, Oman, Yemen) which has
taken steps towards unifying and centralising its water authorities in order
to improve institutional arrangements (ESCWA, 1998). The water-related acts
were also unified into one law which covered issues of development,
conservation and investments under Law No. 16 of 1982. This initiated the
creation of a Ministry of Irrigation in 1983, with the specific task to
co-ordinate and supervise all ministerial activities related to water
consumption (industrial, agricultural and human) and irrigation (Ministry of
Irrigation, 1999). It has also centralised the activities executed by
existing institutions, such as the Ministry of Public Works, the Ministry of
the Euphrates Dam, the Ministry of Municipalities and Rural affairs and the
Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian reform. In fact, interestingly enough, a
separate entity was established in 1968 for the development of the Euphrates
Basin which can be viewed as evidence of its strategic importance for
national development. An institutional
framework was put in place by the Ministry and in some sense this served to
underline the priority of the water sector. Further indication of the central
importance of the water sector is provided by the fact that high-level
officials have been designated to control the planning and monitoring
institutions; notably the Prime Minister presides the Planning Supreme
Council and the Agricultural Supreme Council. Survey and research tasks are
executed by several Ministries, such as the Water Studies General Company
(under the aegis of the Ministry of Irrigation), the Dept. of Irrigation and
Water Resources (Ministry of Irrigation), the Regional Irrigation Departments
and the Irrigation and Water Use Department (Ministry of Agriculture and
Agrarian Reform). General companies engage in follow-up tasks for the
implementation of projects (General Company of Irrigation and Construction as
well as others), while the Ministry of Housing and Public Utilities is
represented by provincial corporations. A special department was set up in
affiliation with the Ministry of Public Works in order to address the
pollution problem. So, for instance, the Water Fauna Law no. 30 forbids the
drainage of industrial and laboratory sewage into the public water resources
(article 22). The regulations published by the Ministry of Environment, in
conjunction with the Ministry of Agriculture, are yet another consequence of
efforts to combat pollution. These regulations are principally concerned with
the effects of the drainage waters. 3.2. Low Water
Charges As in other parts
of the Arab region, water is provided at low and subsidised rates in Syria.
Water charges are maintained at low levels in order to diminish costs for
low- income groups and their activities in particular sectors, such as
agriculture. With the introduction of large irrigation schemes in the 1970s,
Syria made extensive spending plans for the expected returns on investments.
Consequently, cost recovery plans needed to be implemented to mitigate the
effects of the spending spree. One of the ways in which the government
decided to raise funds was to tax all agricultural, industrial or domestic
water use. Among other things this entailed the levying of specific charges (introduced
by Law No. 46 of 1972) for beneficiaries of government projects. Charges
increased over the years from SP: 70 per hectare to SP: 1075 (Law No. 19 of
1989 & Act No. 128 of 128) for all users of small- and medium-sized dams.
In contrast, landowners who have seen the restitution of part of their lands
were only called upon to pay the costs (set by the Agricultural Supreme
Council) associated with reclaiming these lands; the fees could further be
paid in instalments over thirty year, free of interest. The government has
also encouraged the use of modern irrigation techniques by farmers who were
granted loans by the Agricultural Bank for their purchase. All water charges
are, however, of nominal nature and do not reflect the actual costs of water
supply. Also, cost recovery mechanisms are not optimal: irrigation charges do
not include the capital costs of water supply and cover only a small portion
of the current costs of water supply. The charges stand in proportion to the
size of the irrigated area, and do not cover the quantity of water used.
Landowners end up paying only 20 percent of irrigation costs (Bakour, 1991).
On the other hand, no charges apply to the use of groundwater, nor are there
pre-defined limits that regulate the quantity of water or the depth of
extraction, thus, evidently, making over-pumping permissible (Bakour,
1991&1993). Decision no. 3072 of 1990 also indicates that domestic water
charges are a –symbolic- contribution to the public water supply networks. 4) Institutional,
Economic & Environmental Problems The figures below
(Table 4) make clear that water demand for the next ten years is
expected to increase. In this connection, population projections are
estimated at 16,228 millions (2000) and 21,286 millions (2010) (Khoury, 1990).
The urban share of the population was estimated to amount to 52 percent in
1996, at an annual urban growth rate of 3,5 percent (UN Department of
Economic and Social Affairs, 1996). We can, however, note that the latest
national census exceeded these ranges with a Syrian population already
reaching 17,540 millions (Al Thawra, 1999). Table
6: Syria’s Water Demand per Sector (current & projected).
Calculations
made by author on the basis of various sources : Khoury 1990, ESCWA
Survey 1990, Ministry of Irrigation 1995 (the 2010 Water Demand for
agriculture has been estimated on base year 1995 and projected goal of total
irrigated area of 1500 kha). 4.1. The Need for
a Water Policy Reform A water policy
reform, which includes the re-allocation of water from irrigated agriculture
(considered economically inefficient) to industry and the improvement of
legal water aspects, has yet to be introduced in Syria. This is particularly
important since reducing the share of water allocated to agriculture is
commonly acknowledged as a good way to lessen the dependency situation of a
downstream riparian. The need to shift from supply to demand management and
abrupt irrigated agricultural practices has been advised by experts (Naff,
1994; Allan, 1994 & 1998). Demand-management also depends on control of
population growth, the restructuring of the economy, redistribution of
supplies, and the use of water conservation techniques vs. supply management
which can affect water supply by increasing the catchment of winter
floodwater, reclaiming wastewater or desalinating. Some experts suggest a combined
supply- and demand management approach (Naff, 1994). Syria does not
appear to have an incentive to adopt a demand management approach under
conditions where there are considerable supply opportunities to exploit
(Euphrates basin). On the other hand, the value of agriculture, in and of
itself, by far exceeds its economic value; like in many developing countries,
it is « culturally embedded, highly symbolic, political and militarily
significant » (Naff, 1994). The significance of agriculture has to be
viewed against the background of national objectives such as food security, a
policy priority which has symbolic overtones and which, moreover, is
intimately connected with efforts to enhance economic growth and maintain
independence. In addition, there are social dimensions which can explain why
agriculture continues to be of high import. For instance, a particular social
aspect of agriculture is that it prevents mass exodus of the rural population
to the already burgeoning cities. 4.2. Water and
Soil Quality According to some
Syrian officials, there should be changes in the established national water
policy, but it is not suggested that it would be desirable for the country to
modify national economic priorities as a consequence of the supply- and
demand management debate in the developed countries. Nonetheless, it is stressed
that the existing water supply should be optimised and that there should be a
reduction in the amount of water resources used for agricultural purposes
(estimated at some 90 percent out of total water consumption). For example,
it is suggested that, water losses can be limited by redesigning crop
rotations per basin, or improving the drainage networks assigned to
irrigation, and by introducing drip irrigation (Bakour, 1991 & 1994).
Following an agreement with the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO),
drip and sprinkler networks were provided to farmers with loan repayment
schemes of 3 to 5 years. Officials now speak of roughly 30% of the country’s
irrigation networks as part of the recent introduction of water-efficient
techniques (Interview with A.A Masri, Director of International Waters,
Syrian Ministry of Irrigation, 1999). Unofficial sources point out, however,
that only a very small percentage of the irrigated surface is already
efficiently irrigated. Overuse of water in the agricultural sector has led to
depletions and deterioration of the groundwater’s quality, as well as a
deterioration of the quality of soil. The Near East, and Syria in
particular, is a region subject to salinisation and accumulation of gyps
(Ghadban, 1995), mainly in the Euphrates Basin. One of the measures necessary
to prevent irrigation-induced water-logging and salinisation in arid and
semi-arid regions is the installation of drainage facilities which allow for
cleansing of excess salts from the plant root zone. Thus, specific programs
to rehabilitate water supplies were introduced, with the construction of
water impoundment structures and conveyance systems for water irrigation (as
in Egypt, Iraq, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) (ESCWA,
1998). These efforts on the part of Syria have been reflected in reports from
international agencies which have informed that Syria « topped the list
of countries within the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
re-using drainage and waste water when it recycled 1.45 billion cubic
metres in 1997 » (Arab News Channel, 7 January 1999). However, much more
time and investments are needed to be able to progress with land reclamation
and soil improvement. This has led, for example, to a drastic re-evaluation
of the targeted surface to be irrigated in the Euphrates Basin, from 740,000
ha as originally planned in 1965, to 640,000 today. Besides the amount of
precipitations and crop evapotranspiration, the quality of soil has impacted
on the amount of water needed per irrigated hectare. The Euphrates Basin is
estimated to need about 15,000 m3/hectare (Interview with M. Daoud, Ministry
of Irrigation, 1999) because of gypsoferous soils and water losses. This
figure should be compared to other regions within Syria where irrigation
requires between 6,000 to 10,000 m3/hectare (Syrian Ministry of Irrigation,
1999). 4.3.
Institutional Problems Syria is in the
process of enacting a comprehensive water code. However, modern water
legislation is required in order to address the integrated development and
management of water resources, as well as policy formulation and
implementation, guidelines for national utilisation (of all natural and
non-conventional water use priorities), water ownership, jurisdiction of
authorities responsible for controlling utilisation, protection, pricing, and
beneficial uses, as well as the issuing of user permits, and provisions for
conflict resolution (ESCWA, 1998). One of the institutional problems that
Syria is confronted with is the multiplication of entities which result in duplication
of functions. Notably, institutional shortcomings are also sometimes
acknowledged in internal reports. For instance, in opposition to the present
situation where the water sector in Syria is being governed by several complementary
laws and regulations, some officials point to the need for centralising all
legislation under one water code (Ghadban, 1993) . Such a code
would address all procedural aspects linked to water use and its impact on
quantity and quality, while at the same time serving to enhance horizontal
co-ordination between various entities. But as noted by several surveys,
« water legislation enforcement remains one of the major obstacles to
optimal development and management of water resources in the region » (ESCWA,
1998). In addition, problems of enforceability prevail for certain matters,
such as regulations against pollution, the destruction of networks, and
licensing for wells. Internal reports recommend the « application of the
existing regulations with extreme severity against the destruction of the
irrigation networks and pollution of the waters » within the Orontes
Basin (Ghadban, 1995). It is also emphasised that there is a need to sanction
violations and more efficiently regulate the extraction of groundwater
resources in the Yarmuk Basin due to the impact on « drainage of the
many springs being fed from within the catchment » (Ghadban, 1995). 5) National
Goals: Food & Water Security vs. Water Stress Poverty, food
insecurity, and environmental degradation are recognised as critical
development problems and often considered to be priority issues on the agenda
for international development; especially in the wake of the International
Conference on Nutrition (ICN, 1992), and the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development (UNCED, 1992). The Arab League has also adopted a
regional goal of Arab Food security (AFS) and Arab Water Security (AWS) for
the year 2000 and beyond (Khoury, 1990). In effect, food imports within the
ESCWA region increased by 2.5 per cent in 1994, amounting for US$ 11.8
billion (ESCWA, 1995). The self-sufficiency ratio for cereals dropped from 78
percent in the early 1970s to 48 percent in recent years (Khoury, 1990).
Syrian internal reports attribute these problems to two factors. In the first
place, annual population growth is estimated to some 3.36 percent, and
secondly, food imports are increasing as a share of the country’s overall
imports (Ghadban, 1995). 5.1. Food
and Water Security Concerns over
food security stand in direct relation to water security (Naff, 1994). A
distinction is made by international agencies (FAO) between renewable and
non-renewable internal water resources, (IRWR) and actual renewable water
resources (ARWR). The internal renewable water resources are water sources
that are generated from endogenous precipitation (surface run-off and
groundwater recharge inside the countries' borders) ; the actual flow
(ARWR) is the actual maximum amount of water, theoretically, available.
Actual flow takes into account abstraction in upstream countries and the
volumes allocated through formal or informal agreements or treaties between
countries (FAO, 1996). The internal renewable water resources per inhabitant
in the Near East are among the lowest in the world. Syria can be categorised
as an intermediate country in so far that it to a large extent depends on
upstream countries (mainly the Euphrates from Turkey), for its renewable
water resources, estimated to some 80 percent but on the other hand it is
located upstream from other countries that depend on the same rivers (Iraq).
The Syrian total water volume is estimated at about 29 bcm, with 13 bcm as
IRWR and 16 bcm in ARWR -inclusive of Syria’s share of the Euphrates and
Tigris Rivers. 5.2. The
Definition of Water Stress Syria is endowed
with important resources. As we have seen, the country benefits from the
abundant waters of a major river such as the Euphrates. However, the
description of Syria as a water-rich country has to be tempered. Based on the
past experience of moderately developed countries in arid zones, some
international agencies (UNEP/UNDP/WB) have adopted a benchmark for water
supply, estimated to some 1,000 cubic metres per capita, and yearly. Below
this rate, most countries are expected to experience chronic water scarcity
on a scale sufficient to impede economic development and harm physical
health. Less than 1000 m3/head/year is required to render the Syrian
population self-sufficient in terms of food consumption. The per capita share
is estimated to be lie between 160-200 litres/person/day. This is less than
half of what the average western country uses, which is considered to
fluctuate around 400 litres/day. In 1992, the UNHCR called for a minimum
allocation of 15 litres/per/day. For the sake of comparison, the US
residents’ share has been estimated at 410 litres/per/day of municipal water
and 6000 litres/per/day when taking into account the industrial and
agricultural uses; on the other hand, other countries population, such as
Peru and Sudan subsist on less than 15 litres/per/day (Roberts, 1998). The
per capita share in Syria has declined over the last fifteen years from 1320
m3/year (1976) to 791.7 m3/year (1989), to 761 m3/year (1993) (Bakour,
1991; Ghadban, 1993), to 477 m3/year (1996). These amounts should be
viewed in light of two sets of figures, on the one hand the FAO criteria for
(per capita) internal renewable resources, and on the other hand the figures
can be compared to actual per capita renewable water resources which amount
to 1791 m3/year. As a comparison, Turkey’s per capita share is estimated at
about 2800 m3/s. (Republic of Turkey, 1999), and Iraq’s at 2300 m3/s. . One gauge could
be considered, such as the international standards set by the United Nations
Commission on Sustainable Development (1997). In principle, then Syria
constitutes a medium to high water-stressed country, where withdrawals
approach 40 percent of the water available (see Table 5). This report
distinguishes four categories of water stress based on the amount of
available freshwater that is used, which varies from low water stress (use in
the range of less than 10 per cent), moderate water stress (use in the range
of 10-20 per cent), medium-high water stress (use in the range of 20-40
percent) and high water stress (use of more than 40 percent). This means that
there is an urgent need for intensive supply- and demand management. Current
user patterns and withdrawals may not prove sustainable, and water scarcity
could limit economic growth. Table
7 : Overall Water use by sector (1999) mcm/year
Source :
Syrian Ministry of Irrigation, Planification Department, 1999 (millions
of m3) *
Calculation on the basis of total water volume : 29,014 bcm (Table 1) The pursuit of
the food security objective has meant heavy subsidisation of agriculture.
Moreover, in terms of economic efficiency, it is problematic that 90 percent of
total water consumption is allocated to agriculture because agriculture’s
contribution to GDP is relatively lower than industry’s contribution to GDP.
Food security has become one of the most important aspects in developing the
Syrian economy; a goal which is clearly stated in internal reports as well as
external interventions. The objective of food security is presented as a
crucial part of "national security" as countries are sometimes
confronted to situations where they have means for food imports but are
prevented for political reasons (Interview with N. Kaddur, Syrian State
Minister for Foreign Affairs, 1999). Following the launch of the Arab Food
Security Strategy Program in 1982, the Nutrition Section of the Ministry of
Agriculture launched a national survey (1988), which was able to assess the
existence of a food gap - e.g., the discrepancy between actual food
consumption and UN standards for subsistence level food consumption - of 20 to
30 percent (Ghadban, 1995). UN standards are set at 2250-2400
calories/day. By 2010, priority was given to expansion of irrigated areas at
a rate of 200,000 ha/year, with the aim of reducing dependence on
fluctuations in rainfed cultivation (Ghadban, 1995). Thirty-three percent of
the overall surface can be cultivated, and out of this area sixteen percent
has been irrigated (Bakour, 1991; Ghadban, 1995). It is however noteworthy
that the surface used for irrigation was doubled between the 1970s (472 thousand
hectares) and 1999, a period for which estimates are set at 1,260,000
hectares (see Table 1). 5.3. The
Construction of Dams, a Tool for Food Security Two main avenues
have been advocated for the purpose of achieving food security, internally
and externally. As elucidated under Section 3, Law no. 3 of 1972 is
representative of the policies undertaken by developing countries during the
seventies – to construct small, medium-sized and large multi-purpose dams as
storing facilities for floods and surface run-off, rivers and winter flowing
streams. In the first place, rapid implementation of the ongoing
irrigation projects, is argued to increase the irrigated areas in the
Jaghjagh and Upper Yarmuk areas and obtain 6300 hectares (Ghadban, 1995).
Secondly, the introduction of improved technological methods is expected to
increase production per irrigated hectare from 3,5 tons/hectare to 5 tons
(Ghadban, 1995). Today, Syria has
a total of 156 dams (Syrian Ministry of Irrigation, Planification Department,
1999). Dams on the Euphrates are the largest dams in Syria with a storage
capacity which exceeds 1 billion m3. The construction of the Tabqa dam was
launched in 1968 in line with the policy objectives at that time. Another
dam, Al Baath Dam, was constructed downstream below the Euphrates Dam. It was
intended to satisfy multiple needs such as to maintain a constant flow for
the electric turbines of the upper Dam, and to irrigate and produce energy.
The Tishrin Dam, at the Turkish-Syrian border, was launched in order to
generate electricity and store the waters. The construction was ended in
October 1999; the dam will be fully operative within four years. However,
twenty years after the start of large-scale projects, internal reports
highlight a preference towards small surface dams which turn out to be
relatively cheaper while at the same time generating greater benefits
(Bakour, 1991; Interview with M. Daoud, Syrian Ministry of Irrigation, 1999).
The following table establishes the characteristics and multi-purpose functions
of the dams in the basin. Table
8: Existing Dams in the Euphrates Basin
Sources :
Ministry of Irrigation (1999) Notably, both the
desire to reach a multilateral water-sharing settlement, as well as the need
to pursue negotiations with Turkey to reach an understanding on the
quantities to be shared common waters are objectives which stand in direct
relation to the food security goal (Bakour, 1991; Ghadban, 1995; Hasbani
& Masri, 1995) . Therefore, in pursuit of national development, the
waters of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers are of great significance. It is
important to recall that discharges from these basins and their tributaries
represent 72 percent of the country’s total emissions and that 80,3
percent of Syria’s water resources are located outside its territorial bounds
(FAO, 1995). In addition, the total area cultivated under the
Euphrates-Tigris basins constitutes about 27 percent of the total irrigated
area (See Tables 1 & 2). 5.4. Food
Security vs. Water Stress In recent years,
water-stress has affected Syria’s capacity to acquire food security. Until
recently, cereal production was growing at a rate of 5-8 percent yearly, and
barley production estimates for 1995 amounted to 10 percent more than
production levels in 1994. The increase even resulted in serious storage
problems and consequently some of the stock was shipped to Lebanon were it
was milled (ESCWA, 1995). However, recently foreign reports have shown that
the aggravated drought situation is severely affecting grain crops and
forcing sale of livestock causing a downward spiral in prices. Since late
1998, rainfalls in the vicinity of Damascus has been held to have amounted to
only one-third of normal rainfall. According to these same foreign sources,
the country is foreseen to import about 500,000 tons of grains in 1999 (Arab
News Channel, 16 March 1999). This has also carried the result that for the
first time in ten years, the government has envisaged to import barley. At the
same time, however, local reports mention that despite the drought,
"Syria will manage to produce 2.0-2.5 million tons of wheat under
irrigation…This quantity, plus about four million tons in storage from
previous years, will cover more than two years of domestic
consumption.". (Arab News Channel, 16 March 1999). Meanwhile, due to
policies which significantly increased cotton plantation, these crops soared
to record highs in 1997 (FAO, 1998). The favourable performance in
agriculture contributed to GDP growth at 6 percent in 1995 (ESCWA, 1995). Conclusion: Water
Resources Vulnerability, Economic Development vs. Power Relations his analysis has
focused on hydrological elements, because an understanding of these factors
is imperative to any account of the interaction amongst the Actors in the
Euphrates and Tigris Basins. A combination of endogenous (e.g., climatic,
institutional, economic) and exogenous (e.g. upstream extraction) factors
have created a condition of medium- to high level stress (as depicted above-
Syria’s Water Tables). As has already been elucidated, the Euphrates and
Tigris waters are significant for issues of national development as well as
water- and food security objectives. In this relation,
the importance of the right to freely access and, generally, to retain
control over water is exacerbated for a country in a situation of economic
development. In other terms, it is imperative for a country to control the
long-term supply of water in order to successfully pursue long-term policy
objectives in favour of economic development. In this connection, precise
indicators have been constructed in order to record Syria's water-resource(s)
vulnerability (Gleick, 1993). As is made apparent from the tables, Syria
extracts 42 percent of water out of total renewable water supply which
implies that is a country with average to high water-stress. For instance, we
have already made clear that Syria allocates 90% of its overall water
consumption to agriculture, but that more efficient use of water resources
could be achieved by allocating a greater share to industry. However, any
attempt to diversify and widen the base for industrial production would
inevitably transfer resources from agriculture into industry. Such a
re-organisation of economic life would constitute a major undertaking for any
developing country and thus entail the delineation and implementation of
large-scale and relatively more capital-intensive projects. The upshot to
this discussion is that in order to make it worthwhile to shift resources
between sectors and, thus, transform the economy, it is absolutely crucial to
exercise control over the water supply, especially when the high dependence
on surface water, originating externally to the country (80%), exacerbates
the importance of retaining control over waters for national development
plans. Syria has extensive plans for the irrigation of 640,000 hectares in
the Euphrates Basin which depend on, the supply of regular flows from the
Euphrates and its tributaries as well as, the 210,000 hectares in the
Khabur-Tigris Basin (see Tables 2 & 4 ). By virtue of
crossing national boundaries, water forces riparian states into a situation
of interdependence. This mutual dependency is aggravated by the fact that the
three immediate countries (Iraq, Syria & Turkey) concerned by the
"fugitive" (Fredericks, 1996) nature of the Euphrates and Tigris
River waters have, as of yet, not succeeded in reaching a comprehensive
water-sharing agreement (Daoudy, 1996). Consequently, these waters are of
utmost importance for each of these countries. It is therefore unfortunate
that more than thirty years of negotiation (1962-1993) have only served to
yield bilateral and provisional treaties between Turkey and Syria
(1987), as well as between Syria and Iraq (1989). Turkey has agreed to let a
minimum of 500 m3/sec pass by the common Turkish-Syrian border while it was
filling the Ataturk Dam reservoir and Syria has committed to give 58% of all
incoming waters to Iraq. In fact, Turkey is building its G.A.P Project which consists
of 22 dams (of which two are already constructed) and 19 HEPP (hydroelectric
power plants) whose ultimate purpose will be to irrigate 1,7 million hectares
(9,7% of Turkey’s total surface) and produce 27 billion kilo watt hours
annually, i.e. the equivalent of 22% of its total hydro-electric potential. I
will now proceed to summarise the positions evoked by Syria and Turkey. The
Turkish government argues that construction of dams is beneficial to all
parties. If large fluctuations can be regulated upstream, then the flow to
downstream countries will also be stabilised over time and constant supplies
maintained under conditions of drought. Incidentally, this a classical
instance of the argument put forth by upstream countries in general. Turkey
argues that, by way of sovereignty, it has the right to freely develop waters
which originate on her land and that Syria and Iraq do not have any rights
over Turkish waters. Finally then, Turkey has suggested that Syria's
irrigation networks are inefficient and that these networks waste over 50% of
the waters through evaporation (Republic of Turkey, Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, 1999). Syria, on the other hand, argues that an agreement that
addresses the needs and use of all riparians needs to be based on the internationally
recognised principles of International Law which establish the principle of
"equitable and reasonable uses". These widely accepted principles
were codified in the UN Convention of 1997 which had crystallised all
principles linked to the non-navigational uses of international watercourses
(UN General Assembly, 1997). Syria is one of the eleven countries who signed
the Convention and Syria ratified the Convention in 1998 (Syrian Arab
Republic, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1999). Syria thus further argues that
it entered into provisional agreement in 1987 in order to allow Turkey’s
development and accepted to settle for 500 m3/s. as a provisional clause
while Turkey was filling its Ataturk Dam. Syrian officials also claim to have
invited Turkey, through their embassy in Ankara, suggesting to revive
negotiations which have been interrupted since 1993 but have received no
answer. Complaints on their part were also conveyed to Turkey when the waters
of the Tigris River were cut for one week in September 1999, in order to fill
the Ilisu Dam’s reservoir (Interview with N. Kaddur, State Minister of
Foreign Affairs, 1999). Syria suggests that Turkey is in effect controlling
the supply of waters that Syria is legally entitled to use and control, and
that these waters represent 66% of its total water supply. In effect, the GAP
project can be expected to extract 50% of the average flow of the Euphrates
at the common Turkish-Syrian border (528 m3/sec, i.e. 16,651 mcm out of a
flow estimated at about 31,4 bcm), thus leaving a remaining of 500 m3/s.
to be divided between the two downstream countries. In effect, the
Turkish data show that existing dams on the Turkish portion of the Euphrates
(Keban, Ataturk, Karakaya, Birecik and Karkamis dams) are scheduled to
irrigate a total of 1,024,000 ha (Republic of Turkey, MFA, 1999); as for the
Tigris Basin, the 5 dams will irrigate a surface of 456,664 ha when they have
been finalised (Republic of Turkey, MFA, 1999). The flow from the Euphrates
tributaries are also put at risk since Turkey is constructing a dam on the
Sajur River; on the other hand, the Tigris River, which will be impacted, has
not been addressed within the Joint Technical Committee of the tripartite
negotiations. Early on, the principle was to focus on the Euphrates River
first. Also, the G.A.P. does not seem to have envisaged the issue of drainage
waters; in effect, the Syrian portion of the Euphrates and its tributaries
from Anatolian lands are expected to be polluted at 35% by insecticides and
herbicides (Kolars, 1991). International organisations such as Greenpeace
have shown concern about the pollution of underground resources across the
Turkish-Syrian border (Al Hayat, 1996). Opportunities for
co-operation do exist as is reflected by the constructive dialogue that has
taken place throughout the years amongst water engineers and negotiators from
both sides. Unfortunately though, such progress has been superseded by a
politicisation of the process. The link between water and power is reflected
in the use of power strategies, such as party arithmetic (Turkish/Israeli
alliance ; Israeli private investments in the G.A.P.), the inclusion of
other issues (Orontes River by Turkey, Sandjak of Alexandretta/Hatay Province
by Syria) and the use of bargaining chips (Syrian support to Kurdish
rebellion to reverse its downstream dependence). This was also made clear by
accusations by the Syrian Minister of Defence -that Israel was using Turkey
to pressure Syria into territorial concessions (Arab News Channel, 1998). As
a matter of fact, links between Turkey and Israel have been strengthened
since 1993 with the signature of many agreements providing for military
training, defence, industrial co-operation and trade. Recent official
encounters have also revived previous suggestions on possible imports of
plastic barges filled with water to Israel (Al Sharq, 1999; Le Temps, 1999)
and investments by Israeli and American companies to accelerate the GAP
Project (Al Mustaqbal, 1999). However, despite Turkey’s threats of war in
October 1998, the expulsion of Kurdish rebel leader Ocalan from Syria and his
later capture by the Turkish authorities, has shifted pressure away from
Syria, and official calls were made on Turkey’s side for the implementation
of "positive" ties with neighbouring Syria (Arab News Channel,
1999). Under these circumstances, it is clear that renouncing discretion over
water policies could be equated to relinquishing control over development
policy objectives. To conclude, the negotiation process between the three
riparians needs to be revived. In this connection, it will be important to
assess the impact of, Turkey’s projects on Syria as well as, Syria’s projects
on downstream Iraq. Any agreement with long-term perspectives should be
contingent upon mutual rights and mutual obligations, and only then can a new
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